Nifty is expected to open flat to negative on Monday, June 2, 2025, but global cues and domestic factors will play a crucial role in determining its trajectory. Here's a detailed analysis:
1. Business Media & Site Analysis:
- Mixed Sentiment: Business media reports suggest a cautious sentiment. While PSU banks performed well and FII inflows continued (driven by US yield volatility and hopes of strong Q4 GDP data and an RBI rate cut), other sectors like IT, auto, metal, and FMCG showed weakness.
- Range-Bound Movement: Nifty has been in a narrow range recently. Experts predict a sideways, range-bound movement unless a clear breakout or breakdown occurs.
- Key Triggers:
- RBI MPC Meeting (June 6): The market will be closely watching the RBI's stance on the rate trajectory, with expectations of a potential 25bps rate cut, which could boost rate-sensitive sectors.
- Global Trade Concerns: Lingering global trade uncertainties, especially after the temporary reinstatement of US tariffs, are a significant concern.
- Domestic Macro Indicators: Investors will be awaiting fresh triggers from domestic macro indicators, including high-frequency data like auto sales numbers.
- Sectoral Performance: PSU banks are expected to continue showing strength, while FMCG and IT might remain subdued.
2. Social Media Trend for Nifty:
- Cautious Outlook: Social media discussions among traders show a cautious outlook. Many anticipate range-bound movement and advise a stock-specific approach.
- Technical Discussions: Traders are actively discussing support and resistance levels, option chain data (call and put writing), and technical indicators like RSI and EMAs.
- Focus on Intraday Levels: There's a strong emphasis on identifying intraday support and resistance levels for profitable trades, given the recent narrow range.
- Discussions on Psychology: Some posts touch upon trading psychology, highlighting the dangers of overanalysis and the importance of trusting one's trading plan.
3. Support and Resistance for Nifty on Monday:
Based on various analyses:
- Immediate Support:
- 24,600
- 24,584 / 24,488 (near-term)
- 24,400 (stronger support)
- Highest Put Writing at 24,600 suggests a strong support zone.
- Immediate Resistance:
- 24,800
- 24,892 / 24,988 (near-term)
- 25,000 (psychological resistance)
- Highest Call Writing at 24,800 indicates significant resistance.
Scenario for Monday Action:
- Upside: Nifty could go up if it sustains above 24,800. A decisive move above 24,900 might push the index towards 25,200-25,600.
- Downside: A breach below 24,600 could lead to further downside, potentially retesting 24,200 or even 24,400.
- Range-bound: Given the current subdued sentiment and global uncertainties, a range-bound movement between 24,600 and 25,050 is highly probable.
4. Integration with Global Market:
- Flat-to-Negative Opening Cues: Gift Nifty is trading lower, suggesting a subdued start for Indian equities.
- Muted US Futures: US futures (Nasdaq and S&P 500) are also under pressure, which could cap upside momentum in Indian markets.
- European Support: European indices posted modest gains, which might provide some balancing support to Indian benchmarks.
- US Tariff Concerns: The temporary reinstatement of US tariffs and the ongoing legal battle over them continue to weigh on global sentiment and could impact Nifty.
- US Bond Yields: Rising US bond yields are also a factor influencing FII inflows and global market sentiment.
- Key Global Data: Investors will be watching key global data points, including the US PCE index and China's PMI, for further direction.
Conclusion for Monday:
Nifty is likely to trade with a cautious and range-bound bias on Monday. While domestic factors like strong Q4 GDP data and hopes of an RBI rate cut offer some support, global uncertainties, particularly around trade tensions and US market cues, will keep investors on edge. Traders are advised to maintain a stock-specific approach, focus on intraday levels, and keep risk tight ahead of key macro events like the RBI MPC meeting. A "buy on dips" strategy might be considered near strong support levels, but with strict stop-losses.